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Alcohol & The American Highway Holocaust Thirty six different social and economic indicators took a knee-jerk turn for the worse immediately after spoken Christian school prayer was banned by the US Supreme Court in 1963. The motor vehicle fatality rate (MVFR) is one of those indicators. Between 1964 and 1971, it jumped from 21 to 26 fatalities per 100,000 population, an unexected and otherwise unexplained 24 percent increase. Prior to 1963, the MVFR had been declining at an average of 1% per year. It began declining again after 1969 at an equivalent rate, but this time the average MVFR for each year was 24% higher than it would have been had the MVFR continued to decrease at its pre-1963 rate. Had the pre-1963 rate continued to the year 2000 our MVFR would have been exactly equal to Germany's rather than 46% higher. Because of this higher MVFR, 460,000 more American lives were lost in traffic accidents than would have been lost had this sudden increase in the MVFR not occurred [read: had the US Supreme Court not banned school prayer].
There was a similar decrease in the MVFR in 1943 which occurred because gas rationing during WWII caused a sudden decrease in the number of miles driven. When gas rationing ended, the number of miles driven increased back to its pre-1943 rate, as did the MVFR. When the MVFR is viewed in the number of fatalities per billion miles driven rather than per 100,000 population, this spike in the MVFR disappears. There is no equivalent explanation for this spike in the MVFR in 1963 OTHER than the banning of school prayer.
The MVFR decreased 22% between 1968 and 1974, but then the US imposed the 55 mph speed limit on the nation, and the rate jumped again, this time increasing seven percent by 1979. It began a gradual decline again, until 1985 when MADD came along and, without a shred of scientific evidence nor statistical proof that alcohol was a factor in increased auto fatalities, forced bureaucrats to impose draconian DWI laws which were followed by a 5 percent increase. It began to decline again in 1989, reachling a level in 1992 which was 25% lower than it was in 1988, at which time minimum age drinking laws and seat belt laws were passed. This steady four year decline then reversed, increasing by three percent by 1995. That is the year that the federal government ended more than two decades of forcing states to impose the 55 MPH speed limit--and the country held its collective breath, waiting for the dire prediction by federal bureaucrats that fatalities would skyrocket if the 55 mph speed limit were ever repealed. That did not happen. Instead, it declined to 15.86 in 1986, to 15.69 the next year, then 15.37, then 15.28 by 1999, and if the next onslaught of hapless bureaucrats with such a perverted sense of humor and a cynical, snide view of humanity can be avoided, will be 15.14 in the year 2000. It's important to recall that the rate of decline in the MVFR which had occurred prior to 1963 was with no major bureaucratic intervention, no seat belt laws, no inexplicible 55 mph speed limit laws, no dramatic DUI laws, no mandatory helmet laws, no seat belt laws, and no air bag laws. Between 1940 and 1950 the MVFR decreased 16.5%, from 27.4 to 22.9 fatalities per 100,000 population. Between 1935 and 1945 it decreased 34.6%, from 28.6 to 20. These rates of decrease are greater than the 9.5% decrease between 1987 and 1997 during which the NHTSA claims to have saved so many lives. Had the pre1963 rate of decline merely continued at the same rate that it had between 1935 and 1963 [read: had it not been interrupted by bureaucrats] the 1999 rate would have been exactly equal to today's rate in a country with no speed limits on its autobahns and where 70% of its drivers admit that they drink and drive: Germany. The cynical hypothesis that Americans are too stupid to be able to make driving decisions independent of government bureaucrats in Washington or judges sitting under fluorescent lights on wooden benches miles away is best discredited by NHTSA's bold claims that "they have saved 18,220 lives with minimum drinking age laws" and that "alcohol-related traffic fatalities decreased 25% between 1988 and 1998". "They" have saved no lives. And when "they" think that "you can prove anything with statistics", then "they" are dead wrong. All they proved to this author is that they're perfectly willing to LIE with numbers just to protect their failed, miserable little bureaucracy. The following chart graphically demonstrates the shell game they are playing with these numbers. These statistical experts expect Americans to believe that they have improved something just because their manipulation of the numbers shows that the rate at which drinking drivers have fatal accidents decreased by 45%, from 11 to 6 accidents per 100k population. while expecting the country to ignore that the rate at which non-drinking drivers have accidents increased from 8 to 9.5.
At a time when they are claiming to have saved 10,750 lives with safety belt laws, and 7,452 lives with drinking and driving laws, and 861 lives with minimum drinking age laws, and 486 lives with helmet laws, and 8,021 lives with air bag laws (a total of 25,750 lives), the accident rate of non-drinking drivers INCREASED 25%, from 8 deaths per 100,000 population to 10. Between 1987 and 1997, if all of these lives they claim to have been saved had actually been saved, the MVFR in 1999 would have been 5, rather than than three times higher, at 15.3. If this bureaurcacy knows what it's doing, then how can they explain that non-drinking drivers were exempted from these improvements in highway safety? Why did their rate increase to 9.5, rather than decrease to 5? Why is our overall rate 50% higher than Germany's and three times higher than England's? What are these bureaucrats going to cook up next to reverse this decrease in our MVFR, just to protect their jobs?
The fact that Germany achieved such a lower fatality rate than us without most of these laws proves that the laws are not needed, and are not the answer. It also suggests that the laws are actually the problem. There are four possibilities for what happened:
What percent of Americans drink and drive, and did that percent decrease? According to Gallup Poll, two thirds of the American population drinks alcohol today, and that ratio hasn't changed much at all since 1939, even though retail liquor sales declined from 1% of GDP in 1950 to .4% recently. This could be explained by the fact that much of liquor sales today are in grocery and fast food stores which are independent of the figures for liquor store sales. One percent of GDP today is $85 billion, which is about half the size of the food industry. At an average cost per ounce of alcohol of 70 cents, this is 121 billion ounces of pure alcohol per year. There are 137 million Americans over age 18 who drink alcohol, and they drink an average of 883 ounces per year or 2.4 ounces per day. The amount of alcohol that the average American consumes in one year, 883 ounces, is enough to keep their BAC above 0.10 every day, for a year and a half. Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/indicators/indalcohol.asp It is possible, but highly unlikely, that the number of Americans who drink and drive decreased at all. 70% of Germans admit that they drink and drive, they have no speed limits on their autobahns, but our MVFR is 50% higher than theirs, all of which suggests that our cynical hypothesis about the stupidity of the average American is unjustified:
Review and/or critique the original spreadsheet with this data and the calculations.
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Modified Tuesday, November 02, 2010 Copyright @ 2010 by Fathers' Manifesto & Christian Party |
