Christian Party

Education Costs as Percent of GDP

1929 to 2008, by Country and State and US

Education Has Become a Bigger Welfare Agency than Welfare

The cost of the achievement gap

The international achievement gap is imposing on the United States economy an invisible yet recurring economic

loss that is greater than the output shortfall in what has been called the worst economic crisis since the Great

Depression. Using economic modelling to relate cognitive skills � as measured by PISA and other international

instruments � to economic growth shows (with some caveats) that even small improvements in the skills of a nation�s

labour force can have large impacts on that country�s future well-being. A recent study carried out by the OECD, in

collaboration with the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, suggests that a modest goal of having the United States

boost its average PISA scores by 25 points over the next 20 years � which corresponds to the performance gains that

some countries achieved between 2000 and 2009 alone � could imply a gain of USD 41 trillion for the United States

economy over the lifetime of the generation born in 2010 (as evaluated at the start of reform in terms of the real

present value of future improvements in GDP). Bringing the United States up to the average performance of Finland,

the best-performing education system among OECD countries, could result in gains in the order of USD 103 trillion.

Narrowing the achievement gap by bringing all students to a baseline level of proficiency for the OECD (a PISA score

of about 400) could imply GDP increases for the United States of USD 72 trillion, according to historical growth

relationships (OECD, 2010b). Longitudinal studies have also demonstrated that student performance at school is a

good indicator of subsequent successful education and labour-market pathways (OECD, 2010a).

Although there are uncertainties associated with these estimates, the gains from improved learning outcomes, put

in terms of current GDP, exceed today�s value of the short-run business-cycle management. This is not to say that

efforts should not be directed towards mitigating the short-term effects of the economic recession, but it is to say that

long-term issues should not be neglected.

In 1996, when the Cato Institute estimated that the total cost per student for all private schools averaged $4,266, and that "other religious" [read: Protestant] schools averaged $2831, the total cost per student for all schools (public and private) was almost $10,000 ($9,857).

In constant 2008 dollars, the cost per student increased 8 fold in 66 years (from $1,515 in 1942 to $12,922 in 2008),during which time the cost of education in many other countries DECREASED. Without taking into account the official inflation rate, this cost increased a cool 100 fold per student, and as a percent of GDP, it more than doubled (from 3.2% to 7.6%).

If we had pegged education spending to its already high (and unprecedented) level of 1942, then in 2010, rather than spending $106.4 billion for education, we would have spent $44.8 billion, saving a cool $61.6 billion that one year. Over the last 66 years, would would have spent two TRILLION DOLLARS less for education, and most likely would NOT have scored dead last in TIMSS.

Countries which spend the least for public education as a percent of GDP, like Japan, Korea, and the Czech Republic (around 3 1/2%, just like we did only 66 years ago) are also the countries which consistently score the highest in math tests (up to 105 TIMSS points higher than us), while countries like Israel, the US, Cyprus, and Malta which spend the most for education (5-6% of GDP) are also the countries with the worst math students. This is not to say that there aren't notable and important exceptions, only that this factoid by itself is proof positive that increasing education spending does not guarantee an increase in education quality.

Bureaucracy

Bureaucracies don't work the same way as the free enterprise system--they're exactly the opposite. In the free enterprise system, the more you drive down costs and drive up productivity, the more you are rewarded. But as a former bureaucrat, I'm going to give you some insight you will never get anywhere else: the most successful bureaucracy is the one that drives UP costs as it drives DOWN productivity. There's no end to the number of techniques a bureaucracy, especially one like our federal education bureaucracy, can devise to accomplish its objective. There is no end to the number of creative ways it can find to fund itself: no dirt poor pig farmer in Afghanistan, no Chinese politician, no Japanese or Korean businessman, no CIA asset like Osama bin Ladin and Saddam Hussein, can resist. Instead they become the major funding sources whether or not they like it or agree. Teachers demand more benfits? NO PROBLEM. China is always good for another few hundred billion dollar loan. Or we can hock a few items we grabbed from the Baghdad Museum, freeze Khadaffi's bank account, grow more poppy seeds in north Afghanistan, or double the price of a gallon of gas we no longer need to pay Saddam for. Driving us into bankruptcy will never slow down this monster, no matter how much you owe it and no matter how bad it gets.

Without this education bureaucracy, you'd now be paying 25 cents per gallon like Iranians or Iraqis pay, or maybe even the 5 cents that Russians pay, rather than $4.00, China wouldn't be threatening to drop the dollar, Japan wouldn't own three quarters of your public debt, Saudi Arabia wouldn't need to loan you a TRILLION DOLLARS, Standard and Poor's wouldn't be threatening to rate you as a junk bond, and once-third-world Korea wouldn't have a higher standard of living than you. SAT scores wouldn't have dropped 132 points, we would not rank DEAD LAST in TIMSS, and an anti-semite would be an anti-lock braking system on a tractor trailer rather than every American citizen who obeys God.

In One Decade, Gap Between Nongovernment & Government Schools Skyrocketed From 40 to 61 Points

	Nongovernment Scores INCREASED 14 Points
	Government Scores DECREASED 7 Points

It seems that educators rely very heavily on the NAEP tests to confirm two things in their minds:

1) American education is improving [drastically].

2) There is no gender gap, or at least it's not statistically significant.

If you were to believe NAEP is an honest test, that the results of the test are being reported accurately, and that it tests skills that are important to the economy or to society, then you could certainly believe all this.

NAEP says that over the last decade, both public and private education in the US has improved: by ten points for public schools and 11 points for private schools. This increase in the gap might be significant, especially since this is a continuation of a trend which saw the gap between private and public schools increase from 9 points in 1990 to 15 points in 2009.

However, even more important, is that PISA confirmed part of the trend, but not all of it. It did confirm an increase in the gap between public and private schools. And it did confirm that, relative to the rest of the world, our private schools improved: by 14 points. BUT it showed a DECREASE of 7 points for public schools, which means that the public:private gap increased 21 points in just one decade (compared to an increase of only 6 points over two decades of NAEP math testing).

NAEP reports that the gap between sexes in math at 12th grade is only 3 points and is not statistically significant. But NO other test shows this, especially not in the 12th grade. Even PISA, which is for 15 year olds, reports that the gender gap in the US of 20 was one of the largest, almost double the OECD average of 11, and almost as big as Brazil at 27 points.

PISA scores are credible. Their database is wide open for all to see. Every imaginable piece of data from their database can be examined and analyzed. By contrast, NAEP uses a rubber ruler to measure our math scores, and thus the "Nation's Report Card" gets an F. PISA has no axe to grind. NAEP resorts to Beverly-Hall-Class tactics [read: it will do ANYTHING] to prove that American educators are the best in the world, and getting ever better.

USA 41 Point Gap

UK 96 Point Gap

Belgium 69 Point Gap

Germany 62 Point Gap

New Zealand 68 Point Gap

Netherlands 41 Point Gap

Switzerland 28 Points

Korea 14 Point Gap

Brazil 33 Point Gap

Mexico 43 Point Gap

Hong Kong Public Schools Score 76 Points Higher

Japan Public Schools Score 6 Points Higher

Russia No Private Schools

Norway No Private Schools

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d10/tables/dt10_190.asp?referrer=report

Table 190.

Total and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: Selected years, 1919-20 through 2007-08

School year	Expenditure per pupil in average daily attendance						Expenditure per pupil in fall enrollment¹
	Unadjusted dollars			Constant 2008-09 dollars²			Unadjusted dollars			Constant 2008-09 dollars²
	Total expendi- ture³		Current expendi- ture	Total expendi- ture³		Current expendi- ture	Total expendi- ture³		Current expendi- ture	Total expendi- ture³		Current expendi- ture	Annual per- cent change in current expenditure
1	2		3	4		5	6		7	8		9	10
1919-20	$64		$53	$720		$601	$48		$40	$539		$449	�
1929-30	108		87	1,360		1,087	90		72	1,127		900	�
1931-32	97		81	1,442		1,207	82		69	1,221		1,022	�
1933-34	76		67	1,236		1,094	65		57	1,050		929	�
1935-36	88		74	1,374		1,161	74		63	1,162		982	�

1937-38	100		84	1,494		1,257	86		72	1,282		1,079	�
1939-40	106		88	1,624		1,353	92		76	1,408		1,173	�
1941-42	110		98	1,515		1,354	94		84	1,297		1,159	�
1943-44	125		117	1,536		1,441	105		99	1,294		1,214	�
1945-46	146		136	1,717		1,605	124		116	1,462		1,367	�

1947-48	205		181	1,887		1,672	179		158	1,648		1,460	�
1949-50	260		210	2,360		1,907	231		187	2,094		1,692	�
1951-52	314		246	2,568		2,009	275		215	2,249		1,759	�
1953-54	351		265	2,801		2,114	312		236	2,491		1,880	�
1955-56	387		294	3,090		2,349	354		269	2,825		2,148	�

1957-58	447		341	3,363		2,564	408		311	3,067		2,339	�
1959-60	471		375	3,441		2,741	440		350	3,215		2,560	�
1961-62	517		419	3,693		2,992	485		393	3,465		2,808	�
1963-64	559		460	3,888		3,204	520		428	3,619		2,982	�
1965-66	654		538	4,398		3,617	607		499	4,084		3,358	�

1967-68	786		658	4,964		4,155	732		612	4,618		3,865	�
1969-70	955		816	5,427		4,637	879		751	4,996		4,269	�
1970-71	1,049		911	5,671		4,923	970		842	5,243		4,552	6.6
1971-72	1,128		990	5,883		5,163	1,034		908	5,396		4,735	4.0
1972-73	1,211		1,077	6,070		5,400	1,117		993	5,599		4,981	5.2

1973-74	1,364		1,207	6,279		5,558	1,244		1,101	5,726		5,068	1.7
1974-75	1,545		1,365	6,402		5,655	1,423		1,257	5,898		5,210	2.8
1975-76	1,697		1,504	6,570		5,820	1,563		1,385	6,049		5,359	2.9
1976-77	1,816		1,638	6,643		5,989	1,674		1,509	6,121		5,519	3.0
1977-78	2,002		1,823	6,863		6,247	1,842		1,677	6,312		5,746	4.1

1978-79	2,210		2,020	6,925		6,332	2,029		1,855	6,360		5,814	1.2
1979-80	2,491		2,272	6,887		6,282	2,290		2,088	6,331		5,775	-0.7
1980-81	2,742	⁴	2,502	6,796	⁴	6,199	2,529	⁴	2,307	6,268	⁴	5,718	-1.0
1981-82	2,973	⁴	2,726	6,782	⁴	6,217	2,754	⁴	2,525	6,283	⁴	5,759	0.7
1982-83	3,203	⁴	2,955	7,006	⁴	6,463	2,966	⁴	2,736	6,487	⁴	5,985	3.9

1983-84	3,471	⁴	3,173	7,321	⁴	6,693	3,216	⁴	2,940	6,782	⁴	6,200	3.6
1984-85	3,722	⁴	3,470	7,554	⁴	7,043	3,456	⁴	3,222	7,014	⁴	6,540	5.5
1985-86	4,020	⁴	3,756	7,930	⁴	7,408	3,724	⁴	3,479	7,347	⁴	6,864	5.0
1986-87	4,308	⁴	3,970	8,314	⁴	7,662	3,995	⁴	3,682	7,709	⁴	7,105	3.5
1987-88	4,654	⁴	4,240	8,624	⁴	7,857	4,310	⁴	3,927	7,987	⁴	7,276	2.4

1988-89	5,108		4,645	9,047		8,227	4,737		4,307	8,390		7,629	4.8
1989-90	5,547		4,980	9,377		8,418	5,172		4,643	8,743		7,849	2.9
1990-91	5,882		5,258	9,428		8,428	5,484		4,902	8,790		7,857	0.1
1991-92	6,072		5,421	9,431		8,420	5,626		5,023	8,739		7,802	-0.7
1992-93	6,279		5,584	9,457		8,410	5,802		5,160	8,739		7,771	-0.4

1993-94	6,489		5,767	9,526		8,467	5,994		5,327	8,799		7,821	0.6
1994-95	6,723		5,989	9,595		8,547	6,206		5,529	8,857		7,890	0.9
1995-96	6,959		6,147	9,669		8,540	6,441		5,689	8,949		7,904	0.2
1996-97	7,297		6,393	9,857		8,636	6,761		5,923	9,133		8,002	1.2
1997-98	7,701		6,676	10,220		8,860	7,139		6,189	9,475		8,214	2.7

1998-99	8,115		7,013	10,587		9,149	7,531		6,508	9,825		8,490	3.4
1999-2000	8,589		7,394	10,891		9,375	8,030		6,912	10,182		8,765	3.2
2000-01	9,180		7,904	11,254		9,690	8,572		7,380	10,508		9,048	3.2
2001-02	9,611		8,259	11,578		9,949	8,993		7,727	10,833		9,309	2.9
2002-03	9,950		8,610	11,729		10,149	9,296		8,044	10,958		9,482	1.9

2003-04	10,308		8,900	11,890		10,266	9,625		8,310	11,103		9,586	1.1
2004-05	10,779		9,316	12,070		10,432	10,078		8,711	11,286		9,754	1.8
2005-06	11,338		9,778	12,230		10,548	10,603		9,145	11,438		9,865	1.1
2006-07⁵	12,015		10,336	12,634		10,868	11,252		9,679	11,832		10,178	3.2
2007-08	12,744		10,981	12,922		11,134	11,950		10,297	12,117		10,441	2.6

�Not available.

¹ Data for 1919-20 to 1953-54 are based on school-year enrollment.

² Constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index, prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, adjusted to a school-year basis.

³ Excludes "Other current expenditures," such as community services, private school programs, adult education, and other programs not allocable to expenditures per student at public schools.

⁴ Estimated.

⁵ Revised from previously published figures.

NOTE: Beginning in 1980-81, state administration expenditures are excluded from both "total" and "current" expenditures. Current expenditures include instruction, student support services, food services, and enterprise operations. Total expenditures include current expenditures, capital outlay, and interest on debt. Beginning in 1988-89, extensive changes were made in the data collection procedures.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1919-20 through 1955-56; Statistics of State School Systems, 1957-58 through 1969-70; Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, 1970-71 through 1986-87; and Common Core of Data (CCD), "National Public Education Financial Survey," 1987-88 through 2007-08. (This table was prepared November 2010.)

Gender Gap Netherlands 17 Points

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d09/tables/dt09_026.asp?referrer=list

Table 26.

Expenditures of educational institutions related to the gross domestic product, by level of institution: Selected years, 1929-30 through 2008-09

Year	Gross domestic product (GDP) (in billions of current dollars)	School year		Expenditures for education in current dollars
				All educational institutions		All elementary and secondary schools		All postsecondary degree-granting institutions
				Amount (in millions)	As a percent of GDP	Amount (in millions)	As a percent of GDP	Amount (in millions)	As a percent of GDP
1	2	3		4	5	6	7	8	9
1929	$103.6	1929-30		�	�	�	�	$632	0.6
1939	92.2	1939-40		�	�	�	�	758	0.8
1949	267.2	1949-50		$8,494	3.2	$6,249	2.3	2,246	0.8
1959	506.6	1959-60		22,314	4.4	16,713	3.3	5,601	1.1
1961	544.8	1961-62		26,828	4.9	19,673	3.6	7,155	1.3

1963	617.8	1963-64		32,003	5.2	22,825	3.7	9,178	1.5
1965	719.1	1965-66		40,558	5.6	28,048	3.9	12,509	1.7
1967	832.4	1967-68		51,558	6.2	35,077	4.2	16,481	2.0
1969	984.4	1969-70		64,227	6.5	43,183	4.4	21,043	2.1
1970	1,038.3	1970-71		71,575	6.9	48,200	4.6	23,375	2.3

1971	1,126.8	1971-72		76,510	6.8	50,950	4.5	25,560	2.3
1972	1,237.9	1972-73		82,908	6.7	54,952	4.4	27,956	2.3
1973	1,382.3	1973-74		91,084	6.6	60,370	4.4	30,714	2.2
1974	1,499.5	1974-75		103,903	6.9	68,846	4.6	35,058	2.3
1975	1,637.7	1975-76		114,004	7.0	75,101	4.6	38,903	2.4

1976	1,824.6	1976-77		121,793	6.7	79,194	4.3	42,600	2.3
1977	2,030.1	1977-78		132,515	6.5	86,544	4.3	45,971	2.3
1978	2,293.8	1978-79		143,733	6.3	93,012	4.1	50,721	2.2
1979	2,562.2	1979-80		160,075	6.2	103,162	4.0	56,914	2.2
1980	2,788.1	1980-81		176,378	6.3	112,325	4.0	64,053	2.3

1981	3,126.8	1981-82		190,825	6.1	120,486	3.9	70,339	2.2
1982	3,253.2	1982-83		204,661	6.3	128,725	4.0	75,936	2.3
1983	3,534.6	1983-84		220,993	6.3	139,000	3.9	81,993	2.3
1984	3,930.9	1984-85		239,351	6.1	149,400	3.8	89,951	2.3
1985	4,217.5	1985-86		259,336	6.1	161,800	3.8	97,536	2.3

1986	4,460.1	1986-87		301,785	6.3	175,200	3.9	113,786	2.4
1987	4,736.4	1987-88		301,786	6.4	187,999	4.0	113,787	2.4
1988	5,100.4	1988-89		333,245	6.5	209,377	4.1	123,867	2.4
1989	5,482.1	1989-90		365,825	6.7	231,170	4.2	134,656	2.5
1990	5,800.5	1990-91		395,318	6.8	249,230	4.3	146,088	2.5

1991	5,992.1	1991-92		417,944	7.0	261,755	4.4	156,189	2.6
1992	6,342.3	1992-93		439,676	6.9	274,435	4.3	165,241	2.6
1993	6,667.4	1993-94		460,757	6.9	287,407	4.3	173,351	2.6
1994	7,085.2	1994-95		485,169	6.8	302,200	4.3	182,969	2.6
1995	7,414.7	1995-96		508,523	6.9	318,046	4.3	190,476	2.6

1996	7,838.5	1996-97		538,854	6.9	338,951	4.3	199,903	2.6
1997	8,332.4	1997-98		570,471	6.8	361,615	4.3	208,856	2.5
1998	8,793.5	1998-99		603,847	6.9	384,638	4.4	219,209	2.5
1999	9,353.5	1999-2000		649,322	6.9	412,538	4.4	236,784	2.5
2000	9,951.5	2000-01		705,017	7.1	444,811	4.5	260,206	2.6

2001	10,286.2	2001-02		752,780	7.3	472,064	4.6	280,715	2.7
2002	10,642.3	2002-03		795,691	7.5	492,807	4.6	302,884	2.8
2003	11,142.1	2003-04		830,293	7.5	513,542	4.6	316,751	2.8
2004	11,867.8	2004-05		875,988	7.4	540,969	4.6	335,019	2.8
2005	12,638.4	2005-06		925,712	7.3	572,135	4.5	353,577	2.8

2006	13,398.9	2006-07		984,192	7.3	608,653	4.5	375,539	2.8
2007	14,077.6	2007-08	¹	1,053,000	7.5	645,000	4.6	408,000	2.9
2008	14,441.4	2008-09	¹	1,093,000	7.6	661,000	4.6	432,000	3.0

�Not available.
¹ Estimated.
NOTE: Total expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools include current expenditures, interest on school debt, and capital outlay. Data for private elementary and secondary schools are estimated. Expenditures for colleges and universities in 1929-30 and 1939-40 include current-fund expenditures and additions to plant value. Public and private degree-granting institutions data for 1949-50 through 1995-96 are for current-fund expenditures. Data for private degree-granting institutions for 1996-97 and later years are for total expenditures. Data for public degree-granting institutions for 1996-97 through 2000-01 are for current expenditures; data for later years are for total expenditures. Data through 1995-96 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate�s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid
programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. (See Appendix A: Guide to Sources for details.) Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1929-30 through 1949-50; Statistics of State School Systems, 1951-52 through 1969-70; Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, 1970-71 through 1986-87; Common Core of Data (CCD), "National Public Education Financial Survey," 1987-88 through 2006-07; Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), Financial Statistics of Institutions of Higher Education, 1965-66 through 1985-86; 1986-87 through 2006-07 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, "Finance Survey" (IPEDS-F:FY87-99), and Spring 2002 through Spring 2008. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts Tables, retrieved September 24, 2009, from http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Selected=N. (This table was prepared September 2009.)

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d03/tables/dt029.asp

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Table 29.

Total expenditures of educational institutions related to the gross domestic product, by level of institution: Selected years, 1929-30 to 2001-02

________________________________________________________________________________________________
        |         |             |Total expenditures for education in millions of current dollars
        |         |             |_______________________________________________________________
        |         |             | All educational   | All elementary and |  All colleges and
        |  Gross  |             |  institutions     | secondary schools  |   universities
  Year  |domestic |   School    |___________________|____________________|______________________
        | product |    year     |          |  As a  |           |  As a  |           |   As a
        |   (in   |             |          |percent |           |percent |           | percent
        |billions)|             |  Amount  |of gross|  Amount   |of gross|  Amount   | of gross
        |         |             |          |domestic|           |domestic|           | domestic
        |         |             |          |product |           |product |           | product
________|_________|_____________|__________|________|___________|________|___________|__________
   1    |    2    |      3      |     4    |     5  |     6     |     7  |     8     |    9
________|_________|_____________|__________|________|___________|________|___________|__________
1929 ...|  $103.7 | 1929-30     |       ---|        |        ---|        |      $632 |      0.6
1939 ...|    92.0 | 1939-40     |       ---|        |        ---|        |       758 |      0.8
1949 ...|   267.7 | 1949-50     |   $8,911 |    3.3 |    $6,249 |    2.3 |     2,662 |      1.0
1959 ...|   507.4 | 1959-60     |   23,860 |    4.7 |    16,713 |    3.3 |     7,147 |      1.4
1961 ...|   545.7 | 1961-62     |   28,503 |    5.2 |    19,673 |    3.6 |     8,830 |      1.6
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1963 ...|   618.7 | 1963-64     |   34,440 |    5.6 |    22,825 |    3.7 |    11,615 |      1.9
1965 ...|   720.1 | 1965-66     |   43,682 |    6.1 |    28,048 |    3.9 |    15,634 |      2.2
1967 ...|   834.1 | 1967-68     |   55,652 |    6.7 |    35,077 |    4.2 |    20,575 |      2.5
1969 ...|   985.3 | 1969-70     |   68,459 |    6.9 |    43,183 |    4.4 |    25,276 |      2.6
1970 ...| 1,039.7 | 1970-71     |   75,741 |    7.3 |    48,200 |    4.6 |    27,541 |      2.6
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1971 ...| 1,128.6 | 1971-72     |   80,672 |    7.1 |    50,950 |    4.5 |    29,722 |      2.6
1972 ...| 1,240.4 | 1972-73     |   86,875 |    7.0 |    54,952 |    4.4 |    31,923 |      2.6
1973 ...| 1,385.5 | 1973-74     |   95,396 |    6.9 |    60,370 |    4.4 |    35,026 |      2.5
1974 ...| 1,501.0 | 1974-75     |  108,664 |    7.2 |    68,846 |    4.6 |    39,818 |      2.7
1975 ...| 1,635.2 | 1975-76     |  118,706 |    7.3 |    75,101 |    4.6 |    43,605 |      2.7
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1976 ...| 1,823.9 | 1976-77     |  126,417 |    6.9 |    79,194 |    4.3 |    47,223 |      2.6
1977 ...| 2,031.4 | 1977-78     |  137,042 |    6.7 |    86,544 |    4.3 |    50,498 |      2.5
1978 ...| 2,295.9 | 1978-79     |  148,308 |    6.5 |    93,012 |    4.1 |    55,296 |      2.4
1979 ...| 2,566.4 | 1979-80     |  165,627 |    6.5 |   103,162 |    4.0 |    62,465 |      2.4
1980 ...| 2,795.6 | 1980-81     |  182,849 |    6.5 |   112,325 |    4.0 |    70,524 |      2.5
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1981 ...| 3,131.3 | 1981-82     |  197,801 |    6.3 |   120,486 |    3.8 |    77,315 |      2.5
1982 ...| 3,259.2 | 1982-83     |  212,081 |    6.5 |   128,725 |    3.9 |    83,356 |      2.6
1983 ...| 3,534.9 | 1983-84     |  228,597 |    6.5 |   139,000 |    3.9 |    89,597 |      2.5
1984 ...| 3,932.7 | 1984-85     |  247,657 |    6.3 |   149,400 |    3.8 |    98,257 |      2.5
1985 ...| 4,213.0 | 1985-86     |  269,485 |    6.4 |   161,800 |    3.8 |   107,685 |      2.6
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1986 ...| 4,452.9 | 1986-87     |  291,974 |    6.6 |   175,200 |    3.9 |   116,774 |      2.6
1987 ...| 4,742.5 | 1987-88     |  313,375 |    6.6 |   187,999 |    4.0 |   125,376 |      2.6
1988 ...| 5,108.3 | 1988-89     |  346,883 |    6.8 |   209,377 |    4.1 |   137,506 |      2.7
1989 ...| 5,489.1 | 1989-90     |  381,525 |    7.0 |   230,970 |    4.2 |   150,555 |      2.7
1990 ...| 5,803.2 | 1990-91     |  412,652 |    7.1 |   248,930 |    4.3 |   163,722 |      2.8
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1991 ...| 5,986.2 | 1991-92     |  432,987 |    7.2 |   261,255 |    4.4 |   171,732 |      2.9
1992 ...| 6,318.9 | 1992-93     |  456,070 |    7.2 |   274,335 |    4.3 |   181,735 |      2.9
1993 ...| 6,642.3 | 1993-94     |  477,237 |    7.2 |   287,507 |    4.3 |   189,730 |      2.9
1994 ...| 7,054.3 | 1994-95     |  503,925 |    7.1 |   302,400 |    4.3 |   201,525 |      2.9
1995 ...| 7,400.5 | 1995-96     |  529,596 |    7.2 |   318,246 |    4.3 |   211,350 |      2.9
        |         |             |          |        |           |        |           |
1996 ...| 7,813.2 | 1996-97     |  562,771 |    7.2 |   339,151 |    4.3 |   223,620 |      2.9
1997 ...| 8,318.4 | 1997-98     |  594,849 |    7.2 |   361,415 |    4.3 |   233,434 |      2.8
1998 ...| 8,781.5 | 1998-99     |  634,232 |    7.2 |   384,038 |    4.4 |   250,194 |      2.8
1999 ...| 9,274.3 | 1999-2000   |  682,838 |    7.4 |   411,538 |    4.4 |   271,300 |      2.9
2000 ...| 9,824.6 | 2000-01\1\  |  737,918 |    7.5 |   442,618 |    4.5 |   295,300 |      3.0
2001 ...|10,082.2 | 2001-02\2\  |  780,100 |    7.7 |   462,700 |    4.6 |   317,400 |      3.1
________|_________|_____________|__________|________|___________|________|___________|__________

---Not available.
\1\Preliminary data for public elementary and secondary schools and estimates for colleges and universities.
\2\Estimated.

NOTE: Total expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools include current expenditures, interest on school debt, and capital outlay. Data for private elementary and secondary schools are estimated. Total expenditures for colleges and universities include current-fund expenditures and additions to plant value. Excludes expenditures of postsecondary institutions that do not confer associate or higher degrees. Data for 1995-96 and later years are for 4-year and 2-year degree-granting institutions that were eligible to participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1919-20 through 1949-50; Statistics of State School Systems 1951-52 through 1969-70, Revenues and Expenditure for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, 1970-71 through 1986-87; The NCES Common Core of Data (CCD), "National Public Education Financial Survey," 1987-88 through 2000-01; Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), Financial Statistics of Institutions of Higher Education, 1965-66 through 1985-86; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Finance" surveys, 1986-87 through 1999-2000, and Spring 2002; and Bureau of Economic Analysis, unpublished data. (This table was prepared November 2003.)

Briefing Paper No. 25

March 26, 1996

Briefing Paper

What Would A School Voucher Buy?
The Real Cost Of Private Schools

by David Boaz and R. Morris Barrett

David Boaz is executive vice president of the Cato Institute and the editor of Liberating Schools: Education in the Inner City. R. Morris Barrett is a writer in New York.

Executive Summary

American schools are failing because they are organized according to a bureaucratic, monopolistic model. A school voucher of $3,000 per student per year would give more families the option of sending their children to non-government schools. However, many people believe that such a small amount could not possibly cover tuition at a private school; they may be thinking of such costly schools as Dalton, Andover, and Exeter and concluding that all private schools cost in excess of $10,000 a year.

In fact, Education Department figures show that the average private elementary school tuition in America is less than $2,500. The average tuition for all private schools, elementary and secondary, is $3,116, or less than half of the cost per pupil in the average public school, $6,857. A survey of private schools in Indianapolis, Jersey City, San Francisco, and Atlanta shows that there are many options available to families with $3,000 to spend on a child's education. Even more options would no doubt appear if all parents were armed with $3,000 vouchers.

Introduction

It is increasingly understood that America's education crisis is one of school structure, not of per pupil expenditures. Simply put, American schools are failing because they are organized according to a bureaucratic, monopolistic model; their organizing principle is basically the same as that of a socialist economy. For the same reason that socialist economies around the world have failed and continue to fail, America's centrally planned schools are failing.

Of course, not all American schools are failing; many are remarkable successes. The trouble is that most of the good schools charge tuition--they are private schools, independent of the government system. They illustrate the value of different schools for different children and the benefits customers derive from competition in school improvement.

The growing movement for school choice calls for a voucher or tax credit system to inject greater market mechanisms and pressures into the education system. Typically, choice plans target around $2,500 as an appropriate value for vouchers or tax credits (as in the 1993 California choice initiative). Many opponents of choice claim that $2,500 would not cover tuition at independent schools, and many well informed citizens are skeptical that a voucher in that amount would gain a student admission to a nongovernment school. However, government figures and other research show that the average tuition at independent elementary schools is less than $2,500. Furthermore, opponents over- look the dynamic market for education that would develop if a choice plan were effected.

How Bad Are the Government Schools?

After more than a decade of national attention and reform efforts, there should be little doubt that America's schools remain in crisis. Scholastic Aptitude Test scores tell part of the story: they fell from 978 to 890 between

Figure 1 Top-Scoring Students on the Verbal Portion of the SAT, 1972 and 1994

Source: College Board, "1994 Profiles of SAT and Achievement Test Takers," p. 9.

1963 and 1980; scores then recovered slightly, rising to 904 by the mid-1980s, but have remained flat since then. It is sometimes claimed by the education establishment that test scores have fallen because more students are taking college admissions tests these days. But the absolute number of students with outstanding scores has fallen dramatically as well: in 1972, 2,817 students scored above 750 (out of a possible 800) on the verbal test, and another 116,630 scored above 600. By 1994 those figures had dropped to 1,438 and 79,606, respectively (Figure 1).(1)

Another indicator of the government schools' failure is the number of colleges and businesses doing the work of the high schools: by the late 1980s, 25 percent of U.S. college freshmen were taking remedial math courses, 21 percent were taking remedial writing courses, and 16 percent were taking remedial reading courses.(2) Remedial reading--in college! A recent survey of 200 major corporations found that 22 per- cent of them teach employees reading, 41 percent teach writing, and 31 percent teach mathematical skills. The American Society for Training and Development projected in 1990 that 93 percent of the nation's biggest companies would be teaching their workers basic skills within the next three years.(3)

Those trends, however, cannot capture the special tragedy of America's inner-city schools, which have become a key element of the vicious circle of poverty. Virtually every major newspaper in the country has recently--if not regularly--sent reporters into inner-city schools only to discover that such institutions are nightmares of gangs, drugs, and violence, with little if any learning going on. Bonita Brodt, who studied the Chicago schools for the Chicago Tribune, writes that she found

an institutionalized case of child neglect. . . . I saw how the racial politics of a city, the misplaced priorities of a centralized school bureaucracy, and the vested interests of a powerful teachers union had all somehow taken precedence over the needs of the very children the schools are supposed to serve.(4)

Education used to be a poor child's ticket out of the slums; now it is part of the system that traps people in the underclass. In a modern society a child who never learns to read adequately--much less to add and subtract, to write, to think logically and creatively--will never be able to lead a fully human life. He or she will be left behind by the rest of society. As former Minnesota governor Rudy Perpich concluded,

As many as one-third of the nation's 40 million school-aged children are at risk of either failing, dropping out or falling victim to crime, drugs, teenage pregnancy or chronic unemployment. What is even more troubling is that, despite the wave of education reform that is sweeping the country, the evidence suggests that the gap between the educational "haves" and the "have-nots" is widening. As Americans, we must come to grips with the fact that our present educational practices are contributing to the creation of a permanent underclass in our society.(5)

When the poor quality of U.S. education is pointed out, we are frequently told that more should be spent on the government schools. But such claims are fallacious. Since World War II real (inflation-adjusted) spending per student has increased about 40 percent per decade, or about doubled every 20 years (Figure 2).(6)

Figure 2 Inflation-Adjusted Spending on American Schools

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Educational Testing Service, Digest of Education Statistics, 1995 (Washington: National Center for Education Statistics, 1995), Table 163.

The money does not go primarily to affluent school districts. The Boston schools, for instance, spend $7,300 per enrollee each year and more than $9,000 per student in average daily attendance.(7) The figure is $9,500 per enrollee in Washington, D.C., and $7,350 in New York City.(8)

Why the Schools Don't Work

America's public school system was initiated in the early 1900s by Progressive Era reformers who believed that a rational, professional, and bureaucratic system--a "one best system"--could be established to maintain certain standards of education for all of society. Although such socialist thinking and economic planning have collapsed elsewhere in the world--most notably in the former Soviet Union, China, and Eastern Europe--we Americans have failed to apply the lessons in the few areas of our economy that are organized along similar lines. Tragically, although our unified, centralized government school system is a dinosaur in the information age, it fiercely resists market-oriented re- forms.

The evidence is overwhelming that America's government schools are overcentralized, bureaucratic behemoths. The number of school districts plunged--from 101,382 in 1945-46 to 40,520 in 1959-60 to 14,881 in 1993-94--and the number of parents and students in each district rose dramatically during the same period (Figure 3).(9) The percentage of school funding provided by local government fell from 63.9 percent in 1946 to 43.9 percent in 1987.(10)

Figure 3 Number of Public School Districts, 1945-94

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1995, Table 88.

The nonteaching bureaucracy has mushroomed; it grew by 500 percent between 1960 and 1984. Over the same period, the number of teachers and principals grew by a comparatively puny 57 percent and 79 percent, respectively.(11)

The situation is markedly different for America's independent schools. For example, in 1987, while there were 3,300 employees in the central and district offices of the Chicago public school system, a mere 36 administrators oversaw the schools of the Catholic Archdiocese of Chicago, although its student population is 40 percent of that of the public schools and it serves a much larger geographical area.(12) In the nation's largest school district, New York City, John Chubb of the Brookings Institution found an even more striking contrast: 6,000 administrators in the government schools and only 25 in the Catholic schools, although the Catholic schools served about one-fourth the number of students the government schools did.(13) Evidence on that point continues to mount; just recently, the Baltimore Sun reported that the Baltimore Archdiocese manages 34,000 students in 101 schools with 7 administrators, while the nearby Harford County public schools need 64 administrators to oversee 36,000 students in 51 schools.(14)

Massive school bureaucracies divert scarce resources from real educational activities, deprive principals and teachers of any opportunity for authority and independence, and create an impenetrable bulwark against citizen efforts to change the school system. The school systems have become susceptible to influence only from special-interest groups, notably the teachers' unions and other elements of the education establishment. Like factories of the former Soviet Union, America's government schools are technologically backward, overstaffed, inflexible, unresponsive to consumer demand, and operated for the convenience of top- level bureaucrats.

Not just free-market intellectuals hold those views. Albert Shanker, president of the American Federation of Teachers, acknowledged recently,

It's time to admit that public education operates like a planned economy, a bureaucratic system in which everybody's role is spelled out in advance and there are few incentives for innovation and productivity. It's no surprise that our school system doesn't improve: It more resembles the communist economy than our own market economy.(15)

Reforming the Schools

The time has come to give the competitive market economy--the system that has given us two centuries of dramatically increasing living standards, the system on which we rely for everything from food and clothing to VCRs and world travel--a chance to improve our educational system. We need to give parents and students a chance to choose their schools. We need to give teachers and principals a chance to be more successful by producing successful students and-- just as important--a chance to lose their jobs if they fail.

Researchers from across the political spectrum increasingly agree on the need to free the schools and empower educational consumers. In their comprehensive study, John Chubb and Terry Moe found that the most crucial factors in the development of good schools were autonomy, an education- al mission, and effective leadership. Furthermore,

Autonomy turns out to be heavily dependent on the institutional structure of school control. In the private sector, where schools are controlled by markets--indirectly and from the bottom up--autonomy is generally high. In the public sector, where schools are controlled by politics--directly and from the top down--autonomy is generally low.(16)

Both bureaucracy and direct democratic control, said Chubb and Moe, interfere with autonomy and school effectiveness. They found that teachers and principals are much more likely to view each other as partners in private schools than in public schools. The politicized bureaucracy of the government schools makes teachers and principals adversaries; the dynamic, market-directed private schools make them colleagues.

We need a program of educational choice to make independent schools available to all families. Such a program would ensure that every parent could choose from a variety of schools, both government run and independent. The government would pay or reimburse each child's educational expenses up to a certain level, and students would not be required to attend a government school to receive funding.

The simplest way to create a system of educational choice is a voucher plan or a tax credit system. Under such a plan, the state would give the parent or guardian of every child a voucher or tax credit to be spent on educational services at any public or private school in the state. Government schools would honor the voucher or tax credit as full payment, but independent schools should be free to charge an additional amount if they choose to do so--to allow more variety in the educational system.

Proponents of a voucher or tax credit system have generally targeted around $2,500 as the per pupil figure, as in California's Proposition 174. Opponents of choice-- themselves usually upper middle class-- frequently allege that such a small amount could not possibly cover tuition at a private school; however, they may be thinking of such costly schools as Dalton, Andover, and Exeter and concluding that all private schools cost in excess of $10,000 per year. Government figures show that the average private elementary school tuition in America is less than $2,500 (Table 1). Since the average tuition for all private schools, elementary and secondary, is now $3,116, less than half the public school figure of $6,857, it might be logical for advocates of choice to propose a voucher of $3,000.

Table 1 Private School Tuition, by Type of School and Level: 1993-94
Average Type of School	Tuition ($)
All private schools	3,611
Elementary	2,138
Secondary	4,578
Combined	4,266
Catholic Schools	2,178
Elementary	1,628
Combined	4,153
Other religious schools	2,915
Elementary	2,606
Secondary	5,261
Combined	2,831
Nonsectarian Schools	6,631
Elementary	4,693
Secondary	9,525
Combined	7,056

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1995, Table 60.

Government figures also reveal that in 1993-94 some 67 percent of all private elementary and secondary schools-- more than 17,000 schools nationwide--charged $2,500 or less for tuition, and some 19 percent charged less than $1,000. Less than 31 percent of American private elementary and secondary schools charged more than $2,500 in tuition (Table 2).

It should be noted that those figures probably underestimate the real costs of both public and private schools, as Myron Lieberman has pointed out.(17) For instance, stated public school costs omit such real costs as capital outlays and pension liabilities. And private school tuitions are supplemented by contributions, fundraising events, in-kind contributions by parents, and below-market labor costs,

Table 2 U.S. Private Schools, by Tuition, 1993-94
Number of Tuition ($)	Schools
Less than 1,000	5,133
1,000 - 2,499	12,259
2,500 - 4,999	5,541
5,000 or more	2,904

Source: Based on National Center for Education Statistics, "Schools and Staffing Survey, 1990-91," Exhibit 8.

especially in Catholic schools. More research is needed so that voters and policymakers can know how much we are really spending for education, both public and private. But the purpose of this essay is to examine what a voucher will buy, so we limit our analysis to the tuition a family would pay if it chose a private school.

We might note also that an ideal voucher plan would allow families to add their own money to the amount of the voucher--so that a family willing to pay $2,000 for education could add that to a $3,000 voucher and be able to afford a $5,000 school. Privately funded voucher plans in Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and other cities have been used by many low-income parents to pay half the tuition at nongovernment schools in order to remove their children from undisciplined, ineffective, and often dangerous government schools. Surely middle-income families would be willing to put forth the same proportional effort. Some scholars predict that vouchers would mean that more total money would be spent on education, as families added their own funds to the vouchers.(18)

Skeptics may still wonder if $3,000 will buy a private school education in all types of American cities--high-cost cities, middle-income cities, and comparatively poor cities. To evaluate the usefulness of a $3,000 voucher in a variety of urban environments, the Cato Institute surveyed all independent schools in four disparate American cities: Jersey City, a small, working-class city outside New York City; Atlanta, a large southern city; Indianapolis, a mid sized, middle-income city; and San Francisco, a large, high- income city. The survey results indicate that for the 1994- 95 school year, in each of those cities there were numerous private elementary schools that charged $3,000 or less. (In fact, in some cities the majority charged less than $3,000.) Although they were not as prevalent, in each city there were also independent secondary schools that charged $3,000 or less.

Cato Survey

Indianapolis

The public schools of Indianapolis and surrounding townships are in Marion County. For 1993-94 the Indiana Department of Education reports that the per pupil expenditure for Marion County schools was $4,678. At private schools the median tuition was $2,180. Forty-nine of the independent primary schools in Indianapolis charged less than the public schools' per pupil expenditure, and 42 of those charged less than $3,000 (Table 3, p. 12).

Fourteen independent secondary schools in Indianapolis charge less than the city's expenditure of $4,678 per student, and 11 of those charge less than $2,500. The median tuition at Indianapolis private secondary schools is $1,850 (Table 4, p. 13).

San Francisco

The public schools of San Francisco are in the San Francisco Unified School District. According to the Business Services Department, in 1994-95 the district paid $4,489 per pupil at public schools. Forty-one independent primary schools in San Francisco, by contrast, charged less than that amount, and 36 of those charged less than $2,500. The median tuition for San Francisco private primary schools was $2,225 (Table 5, p. 14).

Seven independent secondary schools in San Francisco charge less than the city spends, though only two charge less than $3,000. The median tuition for private secondary schools in San Francisco, one of America's most expensive cities, is $7,200 (Table 6, p. 15).

Jersey City

Jersey City's public schools are in Hudson County, New Jersey. The district currently spends $8,315 per pupil at public schools, even though low-cost alternatives to them abound. Not one of Hudson County's 40 private elementary schools charges as much as the government schools cost--in fact, only two cost more than $3,000. The median tuition is $1,775 (Table 7, p. 16).

As is the case with the primary schools, none of Jersey City's 16 private high schools costs as much as the public schools spend, and six cost $3,000 or less. The median cost is $3,210 (Table 8, p. 17).

Atlanta

Atlanta's public schools are located in Dekalb and Fulton Counties, Georgia. Those districts spend $5,769 per pupil at public schools. Thirty-three independent primary schools in Atlanta charge less than that amount, and 17 of those charge less than $3,000. The median tuition is $3,312 (Table 9, p. 18).

Fifteen of Atlanta's 29 independent high schools charge less than the government schools' costs, and six charge less than $3,000. Median tuition is $5,600 (Table 10, p. 19).

Tabulations of Data Table 3 Tuition at Private Elementary Schools in Marion County, Indiana
School	Tuition($)	School	Tuition($)
Holy Cross Central School	1,280	Saint Pius X School	2,195
Saint Gabriel School	1,310	Saint Michael School	2,328
All Saints Catholic School	1,480	Saint Mark School	2,328
Indianapolis Baptist School	1,485	Capital City 7th Day Adv.	2,335
Saint Monica's School	1,600	Saint Roch School	2,370
Gray Road Christian School	1,695	Nativity School	2,475
Chapel Hill Christian Shcool	1,695	Trinity Lutheran School	2,500
Saint Phillip Neri School	1,739	Divine Savior Evagelical Lutheran	2,500
Holy Angels Catholic Shool	1,760	Tabernacle Christian Academy	2,520
Trinity Christian Shcool	1,764	Christ THe King School	2,520
Central Catholic School	1,770	Calvary Lutheran	2,560
Saint Rita's School	1,800	Saint Lawrence School	2,750
Madrasa Tulilm	1,800	Saint Matthew School	2,775
Lakeview Christian Academy	1,800	LPP & Arlington Elementary	2,829
Saint Jude Elementary	1,840	Siant Christopher School	2,875
Saint John Evangelical School	1,925	Saint Simon the Apostle School	3,085
Westside Christian School	1,940	Northside Montessori School, Inc.	3,100
Our Lady of Laurdes School	1,940	Holy Spirit School	3,115
Building Blocks Academy	1,980	Saint Luke School	3,125
Saint Barnabas School	2,000	Immaculate Heart School	3,140
St. Joan of Arc School	2,060	Children's House	3,150
True Belief Baptist Academy	2,060	Saint Thomas Aquinas School	3,250
Zion Hope Christian School	2,090	Hebrew Academy of Indianapolis	4,995
Emmaus Lutheran School	2,100	Sycamore School	5,025
Little Flower	2,132	Worthmore Academy	5,500
Saint Richard's	2,160	Orchard Country	6,300
Saint Andrew the Apostle	2,180*

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private elementary schools in Marion County, Indiana. *Median cost.

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private high schools in Marion County, Indiana. *Median cost.

Table 4 Tuition at Private High Schools in Marion County, Indiana
School	Tuition ($)
Lord of Life Christian School	1,225
Salem Park Academy	1,270
Engledale Christian School	1,650
Suburban Baptist School	1,665
Indianapolis Junior Academy	1,700
Faithway Christian School	1,825
Baptist Academy	1,835
Indianapolis Christian School	1,850*
Calvary Christian	2,060
Colonial Christian School	2,200
Indianapolis Christian School	2,210
Heritage Christian School	3,454
Cardinal Ritter	3,700
Bishop Chartard High School	4,500
Park Tudor School	8,500

Table 5 Tuition at Private Elementary Schools in San Francisco County, California
School	Tuition($)	School	Tuition($)
St. Peter's Parish	900	International Christian School	2,250*
St. Anne Elementary	1,000	St. Mary's Chinese Day	2,300
San Francisco Chinese Parents	1,000	St. Philip Elementary	2,340
St. Dominic	1,100	San Francisco Junior Academy	2,385
St. Paul Elementary	1,300	St. John's Elementary	2,480
Sacred Heart Grammer	1,400	San Francisco Christian Ele.	3,200
Our Lady of the Visitacion	1,450	Cornerstone Academy	3,200
St. Charles Elementary	1,500	Hillwood Academic Day	3,500
St. Stephen's Elementary	1,500	Discovery Center	4,250
Epiphany elementary	1,600	Childeren's School of SF	4,400
St. Thomas More	1,625	Maria Montessori School of Golden Gate	4,900
Holy Name Elementary	1,650	Synergy	4,950
St. Anthony's Elementary	1,650	Town School for Boys	5,300
Finn Barr-Catholic	1,650	Rivendell Center for Integrative Education	5,300
St. James Elementary	1,650	Adda Clevenger Junior Preparatory and Theater	6,000
St. Monica Elementary	1,700	Katherine Delmar Burke	6,100
St. Cecilia Elementary	1,700	Live Oak	6,250
St. Bridgid	1,725	Presidio Hill	6,595
St. Gabriel Elementary	1,800	San Francisco Montessori	6,625
St. Peter and Paul	1,800	Hamlin	6,800
Star of the Sea Elementary	1,850	Chinese American International	6,830
St. Brendan Elementary	1,900	San Francisco School	6,950
Mission Dolores	1,900	Kittredge School	7,000
Zion Lutheran	1,975	Cathedral School for Boys	7,000
St. Emydius Elementary	2,020	San Francisco Waldorf	7,000
St. Elizabeth's Elementary	2,100	Brandeis-Hillel	7,250
Ecole Notre Dame des Victoires	2,100
West Portal Lutheran	2,124
Immaculate Conception	2,180
St. Thomas The Apostle	2,200*

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private elementary schools in San Francisco County, California. *The median, $2,225, falls between these two values.

Table 6 Tuition at Private High Schools in San Francisco County, California
School	Tuition ($)
St. Paul High	2,100
Voice of Pentecost Academy	2,600
Immaculate Conception Academy	3,450
Mercy High	3,950
St. Ignatius College Preparatory	4,100
S. R. Martin College Preparatory	4,100
Bridgemont High	4,375
Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory	5,100
Riordan High	5,615
New Learning School	7,200*
Woodside International	7,690
Hebrew Academy of San Francisco	7,900
Lyc�e Fran�ais International	8,350
Sterne	8,500
Drew College Preparatory	9,700
Urban School of San Francisco	9,750
San Francisco University High	9,950
Convent of the Sacred Heart	10,375

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private high schools in San Francisco County, California. *Median cost.

Table 7 Tuition at Private Elementary Schools in Hudson County, New Jersey
St. Patrick's School	1,120	Holy Cross School	1,800*
Sacred Heart School	1,150	St. Francis Academy	1,800
Our Lady of Assumption	1,200	St. Peter School	1,830
Assumption All Saints	1,200	St. John Nepomucene School	1,850
Sacred Heart School (NJ)	1,250	St. Stephen School	1,850
St. Cecilia	1,255	Our Lady of Mount Carmel(Bayonne City)	1,900
Mt. Pisgah	1,400	Our Lady of Victories	1,900
St. Joseph Palisades Elementary	1,400	Our Lady of Mount Carmel(NJ	1,935
St. Augustine	1,400	St. Aedan	2,000
Our Lady of Czestohowa	1,450	St. Anne School	2,000
John Paul II	1,500	St. Paul School	2,050
Our Lady of LIbera	1,500	St. Joseph School	2,100
Immaculate Conception	1,500	St. Vincent De Paul	2,100
St. Paul of the Cross	1,600	St. Aloysius Elementary	2,150
Beacon Christian Academy	1,600	Ibad El-Rahman	2,200
St. Anthony School	1,650	St. John and Ann School	2,275
Holy Rosary School	1,700	St. Nicholas School	2,345
St. Mary Star of Sea	1,700	Our Lady of Mercy	2,350
Saint Mary Elementary	1,735	Cornerstone School	3,750
Lutheran Parochial School	1,750*

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private elementary schools in Hudson County, New Jersey. *The median, $1,775, falls between these two values.

Table 8 Tuition at Private High Schools in Hudson County, New Jersey
School	Tuition($	School	Tuition($)
St. Anthony	1,850	St. Joseph of Palisades	3,320*
St. Mary High School	2,160	St. Dominic Academy	3,500
St. Aloysius High	2,300	Holy Family Academy	3,630
Al-Ghazaly	2,380	Hudson Catholic Regional High School	3,735
Holy Rosary Acadey H.S.	2,600	St. Peter's Prep	4,700
Academy of St. Aloysius	3,000	The Bergen School	4,800
Academy of Sacred Heart	3,050	Yeshiva Gedolah of Bayonne	6,500
Marist High School	3,100*

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private high schools in Hudson County, New Jersey. *The median, $3,210, falls between these two values.

Table 9 Tuition at Private Elementary Schools in Dekalb and Fulton Counties, Georgia
School	Tuition($)	School	Tuition($)
New Covenant Christian	1,260	St. John's Episcopal	3,312*
Lithonia Adventist	1,850	Valeria Wade Christian	3,350
Light of the World	1,890	Christian Pinecrest Academy	3,450
Atlanta North School of the Seventh Day Adventists	1,950	St. Peter and Paul School	3,490
Florence Jackson Academy	2,009	Our Lady of the Assumption	3,492
Holy Fellowship Christian	2,080	Fellowship Christian Academy	3,950
Gate City Heritage House and Prep Academy	2,100	Roswell Foundation School	3,950
Christ Lutheran School	2,200	Immaculate Heart of Mary	4,000
Cornerstone Baptist School	2,250	Brimarsh Elementary	4,025
Cascade Adventist Elementary	2,450	St. Jude the Apostle	4,125
Glenn-Nova Christian	2,520	International Prep Institute	4,150
Southeastern Christian	2,520	Mt. Vernon Presbyterian	4,840
Northwest Community Academy	2,640	St. Martin's Episcopal School	5,525
Faith Academy	2,700	Wesleyan Day School	5,770
Pathway Christian School	2,750	High Meadows School	5,770
Old National Christian Academy	2,900	The Children's School	6,150
Green Forest Christian Academy	2,950	Greenfield Hebrew Academy	6,150
St. John the Evangelist Catholic	3,100	The Epstein School	6,860
Mr. Carmel Christian	3,150	Trinity School Inc.	7,270
		The Scheneck School	10,300

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private elementary schools in Dekalb and Fulton Counties, Georgia. *Median cost.

Table 10 Tuition at Private High Schools in Dekalb and Fulton Counties, Georgia
New Life Assembly Christian	1,450	Mr. Vernon Christian Academy	5,600*
Becker Adventist School	2,210	The Heiskell School	5,900
Forrest Hills Christian	2,300	St. Pius X Catholic High	6,590
Stone Mountain Christian	2,475	Maris School	6,700
Green Patures Christian Academy	2,650	Yeshiva High School	7,200
Mt. Pisgah Christian Shcool	2,980	The Paideia School	7,440
Sister Clara Muhammed School	3,090	Holy Innocents' Episcopal	7,790
Colonial Hills Christian	3,267	The Lovett School	8,654
Cathedral Academy	3,500	Woodward Academy	8,710
St. Thomas More Catholic	3,676	Pace Academy	8,950
Landmark Christian	4,430	Westminster School	9,805
Masters Christian Academy	4,600	The Cottage School	10,300
Atlanta Advntist	4,800	The Howard School	10,950
		Mill Springs Academy	11,500

Source: Cato Institute survey of all private high schools in Dekalb and Fulton Counties, Georgia. *Median cost.

Conclusion

The data presented make it clear that, today, private schools are an option not just for the wealthy but also for people who can only spend $2,000 a year or even less. Does that mean that every American child, $3,000 voucher in hand, could have a quality private education immediately? Clearly not, but that is not the point. What this research establishes is that, in any of the cities surveyed, low-cost alternatives to the public schools are not only possible-- they exist today. They offer a beacon of hope to families mired in the government school morass. A voucher or tax credit plan would open new options even for parents and students unable to contribute additional funds. Furthermore, if the voucher or tax credit were pegged at 50 percent of public cost (as in the California school choice initiative of 1993), the value would exceed $3,000 in many urban and suburban school districts.

Not surprisingly, the lower income cities cited above, Jersey City and Indianapolis, have greater proportions of low-cost schools than high-cost schools--neither city supports schools with tuitions over $8,500. That is probably a reflection of market conditions: educational entrepreneurs in those two cities cater to a clientele that, for the most part, cannot spend more than several thousand dollars for private school. Thus, the data indicate that the creation of schools follows basic principles of supply and demand.

In a worst-case scenario, a relatively small number of high school students in San Francisco and Atlanta could attend private schools immediately using only the voucher or tax credit. Yet the promise of choice is not what would be available the day after a choice plan was implemented; it is what would exist several years down the road. Choice would set in motion a dynamic process of change that, over time, would almost certainly result in new options and require government schools, perhaps for the first time, to attract students.

Most likely, those changes would be rapid and dramatic. Given that families who today choose private education are in effect paying for education twice (once for public schools in taxes and a second time for the private school), a voucher plan could create revolutionary demand for new educational institutions. If each and every family had the option of spending several thousand dollars on education-- the millions that have heretofore gone to the government in taxes--we could reasonably expect educational entrepreneurs to respond.

Schools would expand; new schools would be established; some schools might lower their tuition or offer scholarships; new teaching methods would be tested and new technologies employed; and government schools would compete to stay open. All of that--and many other unanticipated developments--will occur when families are empowered to decide where resources are spent.

With greater freedom, markets constantly change, responding to changes in supply and demand. A few years ago there were no personal computer stores and no video stores, and there certainly was not enough poultry and seafood in the groceries to satisfy today's demand for lower fat meats. But when demand arose for such products--or when entrepreneurs perceived that there would be demand for those products if they were made available--stores were established to meet the demand.

Teachers and administrators may never have the same profit incentives that businesses like the computer or food industry have. However, in at least one respect the market would treat them identically: they would have to satisfy customers to survive. Indeed, under choice it is possible that some government schools would "go out of business." Given the grim reality of many government schools, such closures would probably be highly beneficial for all parties concerned.

Choice is not about giving up on the government schools or the many fine individuals working within them; there is no reason that government schools could not flourish under choice. Indeed, by providing autonomy--the key to success in almost any human endeavor--as well as an unequivocal mandate to please customers, choice could be the best thing that ever happened to the good teachers and principals in government schools.

Toward the end of their book, Chubb and Moe write, "It is fashionable these days to say that choice is 'not a panacea.' Taken literally this is obviously true." But they go on to say that only choice will address the basic institutional causes of educational failure and that, therefore, "reformers would do well to entertain the notion that choice is a panacea. . . . It has the capacity all by itself to bring about the kind of transformation that, for years, reformers have been seeking to engineer in myriad other ways."(19)

A program of vouchers or tax credits, with few restrictions on the kind of schools that parents can choose and a reasonable figure of $3,000 or so per student, will give families the clout to bring about a revolution in education. Schools will compete, expand, innovate, and proliferate. We know that affordable, high-quality private schools are out there. Why do we not give all children access to them?

Notes

The authors wish to thank Aaron Russell and Jessica Spicer for research assistance.

1. College Board, "1994 Profiles of SAT and Achievement Test Takers," p. 9.

2. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1988 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1988), p. 142; cited in Lewis J. Perelman, "The 'Acanemia' Deception," Hudson Institute Briefing Paper no. 120, May 1990, p. 16.

3. "C Stands for Company, Turned into Classroom," Wall Street Journal, March 1, 1990; cited in Perelman.

4. Bonita Brodt, "Inside Chicago's Schools," in Liberating Schools: Education in the Inner City, ed. David Boaz (Washington: Cato Institute, 1991), p. 66.

5. Quoted in "Educational Choice: A Catalyst for School Reform," City Club of Chicago, August 1989, p. 2.

6. William A. Niskanen, "The Performance of America's Primary and Secondary Schools," in Liberating Schools, pp. 51-64.

7. Boston Municipal Research Bureau, Boston Public Schools, Research Department; cited in Warren Brookes, "The Urban Education Deficit," Washington Times, January 18, 1990.

8. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1990); Gary Putka, "New York Archdiocese Begins Campaign to Save 140 Catholic Schools in City," Wall Street Journal, January 30, 1991, p. A12. It is difficult to calculate a per pupil spending figure for Washington's schools when there is some confusion over whether the city has 80,450 students, as the school system claims, or only 67,000, as an independent audit found. See Sari Horwitz, "D.C. Study Challenges School Enrollment Data," Washington Post, April 28, 1995, p. A1, and idem, "District Superintendent Disputes Student Count," Washington Post, June 7, 1995, p. B7. If the audit figure is correct, the D.C. school system spends as much as $11,200 per student in average daily attendance-- or even $12,875 if we account for the school system's in flated attendance claims. See David Boaz, "How Much Does D.C. Really Spend per Pupil?" Washington Post, August 3, 1995.

9. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1987 (Washington: NCES, 1987), p. 70.

10. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educa tion Statistics, The Condition of Education, 1994 (Washington, NCES, 1994) p. 328.

11. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educa tion Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1989 (Wash ington: NCES, 1989), Table 35; and Lynne V. Cheney, "Ameri can Memory: A Report on the Humanities in the Public Schools," National Endowment for the Humanities, Washington, 1987, p. 25.

12. Casey Banas, "Enrollment's Down, Central Office Workers Up," Chicago Tribune, September 29, 1987; and Archdiocese of Chicago, "Chicago Catholic Schools, 1987-88 Report"; both cited in Herbert J. Walberg et al., We Can Rescue Our Children (Chicago: Heartland Institute, 1988), p. 12.

13. John Chubb, in "Making Schools Better," Manhattan Institute, Center for Educational Innovation, New York, 1989, pp. 10-11.

14. Mike Bowler, "Catholic Schools: More for Less," Baltimore Sun, October 8, 1995, p. 2C.

15. Quoted in "Reding, Writing & Erithmatic," editorial, Wall Street Journal, October 2, 1989.

16. John E. Chubb and Terry M. Moe, Politics, Markets, and America's Schools (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1990), p. 183.

17. Myron Lieberman, Privatization and Educational Choice (New York: St. Martin's, 1989), pp. 65-73, 220-28; and idem, Public Education: An Autopsy (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993), pp. 114-42.

18. Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 94-95.

19. Chubb and Moe, pp. 215-17.